The Irish electoral system uses Proportional Representation in its Parliamentary elections. As such, it can take days or even weeks before the full result of an election is known. However, early results from the election suggest that the previous coalition partners, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will once again return to government with a combined total of more than 80 seats. Fianna Fáil received 48 seats in the Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives), and while Sinn Féin beat Fine Gael, securing 39 seats, the latter came in close third with 38 seats.  

Despite what some may call an obvious coalition, the second most popular party in this election, Sinn Féin, has indicated their intention to join the next government. However, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael expressing their reluctancy to cooperate with the party, they will need to look towards garnering support from the growing number of independents and other smaller parties.  

The last Parliament saw these two major parties join forces with the Green Party to reach a majority, but it is unlikely this time around. The Greens only retained one of their previously held 12 seats. With the Green’s one seat, a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael coalition would fall short of the required 88 seats for a majority; they, too, must turn to other parties. 

A lack of Green Party representation within the Irish Government could create uncertainty over efforts to retrofit social homes to enhance their energy efficiency levels, expand district heating schemes, and harness Ireland’s onshore wind and solar potential. Both Labour and the Green Party have also included proposals to make public transport more affordable to reduce car dependency.  

With the inclusive of the Greens unlikely, the three largest parties have been proactive in their climate pledges throughout the campaign. We’ve summarised them to help make sense of what we can expect to see from the incoming coalition government.  

Fianna Fáil 

Fianna Fáil joined Fine Gael in the last government. Some of their commitments in the climate space included:  

• Encouraging the transition away from fossil fuels 

• Supporting the development of data centres that can be used as waste heat sources for district heating projects 

• Increasing funding and support for the electric vehicle (EV) rollout and its associated infrastructure. 

• Committing to increasing their support for the Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) 

In home energy, the party have pledged to provide better advice to homeowners who are looking to improve their energy efficiency levels and will introduce a Boiler Scrappage Pilot to help homeowners switch to lower carbon heating sources. For rural homes using solid fuels or oil, Fianna Fáil will promote alternatives such as HVO (a renewable diesel) and bioLPG (a renewable propane), while facilitating the development of Local District Heating Networks.  

Finally, Fianna Fáil will legislate for a new Energy Poverty Reduction Bill that will require energy companies to divert wasted energy to homes in fuel poverty and create a new Minister of State for Energy to oversee these policies.  

Fine Gael 

Fine Gael, the second coalition partner in the last government, have also echoed Fianna Fáil’s pledge to invest in renewable energy sources including wind, solar and other emerging technologies. They have committed to making all new public buildings zero-emission from 2028 and will develop and publish the Designated Maritime Area Plans (DMAPs) to help accelerate offshore wind projects.  

Also, in alignment with Fianna Fáil is Fine Gael’s commitment to supporting the creation of data centres for economic growth and for use as waste heat sources for district heating systems. They have pledged to back the research and development of wave, tidal and hydrogen energy, while promising to launch a Roadmap for Industrial Heat Decarbonisation. Their manifesto has also focused on supporting the use of smart meters for improved energy efficiency and will provide greater support for low-income households for essential efficiency improvements. 

Biofuels and HVO solutions are also supported by the party, particularly for homes using solid fuels or oil to heat their homes. Fianna Fáil will also commit to develop circular economy strategies focused on waste reduction, increase carbon taxation in alignment with the Climate Change Advisory Council, and undertake deep retrofit of State buildings such as hospitals and schools.   

Sinn Féin 

Sinn Féin argue that the richest 10% account for around 50% of emissions. They therefore support taxing private jets and reforming the Public Service Obligation (PSO) levy so that rates are charged on total demand rather than peak demand. Sinn Féin believe that as large energy users disproportionately drive-up energy demand, the burden of this levy should be lightened on households.  

They have committed to accelerating the delivery of renewable energy solutions, implementing the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive III, establishing a task force to reduce the cost of renewable energy, and reviewing planning permissions for offshore wind projects.  

The party will support expansion of the electricity grid to help take full advantage of Ireland’s renewable energy capacity and create a €2.5 billion Renewable Energy Fund to increase investment in the energy grid.  

Sinn Féin have committed to establishing a Renewable Energy Investment scheme to expand state-owned equity in renewables, expand domestically owned renewables and will set a target of 10% of new renewables capacity to be locally owned by 2030. They will also invest €7 billion in the National Retrofit Plan to ensure it targets low- and modest-income homes, while providing an additional capital investment of €850 million for the deep retrofit of over 44,000 social homes. Sinn Féin will also establish a dedicated scheme for heat pumps for homeowners.  

What’s next? 

The leaders of the three main Irish political parties now face talks to try to form the next government. This will likely include cooperation with other smaller parties such as the Social Democrats, Labour, and the independents. Many political commentators are suggesting that these discussions could extend into the new year.  

It is possible that the smaller parties could either provide greater support or potential derailment of some of the larger parties’ climate pledges, but there will be a long wait before we know who will form the next government.